Each was flagged on at least two of three orthogonal signals: capacity-factor underperformance versus a peer cohort, recent hail exposure, and PPA-roll vintage. Methodology is fully transparent below; the underlying inputs are public.
Distribution of trailing-12-month capacity-factor gap versus peer-median across all 87 TX utility-scale PV plants. The selected 20 (amber) were not cherry-picked from the middle of the distribution.
Click any row to focus it on the map and scroll to its detail card.
| # | Plant | Owner | Type | MWac | COD | CF 12mo | Gap %↑ | Hail 12mo | Signal | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grizzly Ridge Solar | Grizzly Ridge Solar LLC | PV | 100 | 2023 | 11.6% | -55.5% | 9 | Strong | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 2 | Samson Solar Energy III LLC | Invenergy Services LLC | PV | 250 | 2022 | 12.7% | -48.5% | 8 | Strong | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 3 | Samson Solar Energy | Invenergy Services LLC | PV | 250 | 2022 | 14.7% | -40.8% | 8 | Strong | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 4 | BPL Files Solar | BPL Files Solar LLC | PV | 157.5 | 2023 | 16.4% | -29.9% | 30 | Strong | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 18 | Misae Solar | Childress Solar Park LLC | PV | 240 | 2020 | 18.9% | -24.4% | 9 | Moderate | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 7 | Greasewood Solar | Concho Bluff LLC | PV | 255 | 2021 | 19.4% | -22.2% | 25 | Moderate | HAILGAPCURTAILMENT |
| 6 | Coniglio Solar | BT Coniglio Solar LLC | PV | 123.6 | 2021 | 19.2% | -21.3% | 25 | Moderate | RESIDUALHAILGAP |
| 12 | Pearl Solar | BHE Renewables, LLC | PV | 50 | 2017 | 21.4% | -20.5% | 3 | Moderate | GAPVINTAGECURTAILMENT |
| 8 | Briar Creek Solar 1 | Briar Creek Solar 1, LLC | PV | 127 | 2021 | 19.5% | -19.7% | 15 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 5 | Concho Valley Solar, LLC | CVS Energy Holdings, LLC | PV | 172.8 | 2023 | 19.7% | -18.8% | 29 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 10 | Midway Solar - TX | 174 Power Global Corp. | PV | 182 | 2018 | 20.0% | -18.7% | 5 | Moderate | HAILCURTAILMENT |
| 9 | Noble Solar | BT Noble Solar, LLC | HYBRID | 275 | 2022 | 21.4% | -16.3% | 40 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 11 | OCI Alamo 5 LLC | Consolidated Edison Development Inc. | PV | 100 | 2015 | 21.2% | -15.2% | 2 | Moderate | VINTAGE |
| 20 | Impact Solar 1 | Impact Solar 1, LLC | PV | 198.5 | 2020 | 21.0% | -14.5% | 9 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 16 | Elm Branch Solar 1 | Elm Branch Solar 1, LLC | PV | 134.7 | 2021 | 21.1% | -14.3% | 20 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 15 | G.S.E. One LLC | GSEone | PV | 83 | 2021 | 21.5% | -12.3% | 33 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 19 | Kellam Solar | ENI New Energy US, Inc | PV | 59 | 2020 | 21.8% | -10.9% | 5 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 17 | Pisgah Ridge Solar, LLC | Pisgah Ridge Solar, LLC | PV | 250 | 2022 | 23.2% | -8.7% | 15 | Moderate | HAIL |
| 14 | Oberon IA | 174 Power Global Corp. / TotalEnergies | PV | 150 | 2020 | 21.9% | -8.5% | 19 | Moderate | HAILCURTAILMENT |
| 13 | BT Cooke Solar, LLC | Adapture Renewables, Inc. | PV | 59 | 2020 | 22.9% | -6.5% | 31 | Moderate | HAIL |
The centerpiece visual: each plant's monthly MWh against its peer-median expected MWh, with hail events overlaid on the time axis.
100 MW Hamilton County plant, owned by Grizzly Ridge Solar LLC, COD 2023. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 11.6% vs peer median 23.0% (gap of -55.5%); 9 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -55.5% trailing gap, -6.5% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -49.0% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
250 MW Lamar County plant, owned by Invenergy Services LLC, COD 2022. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 12.7% vs peer median 24.6% (gap of -48.5%); 8 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -48.5% trailing gap, -5.3% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -43.2% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
250 MW Franklin County plant, owned by Invenergy Services LLC, COD 2022. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 14.7% vs peer median 24.6% (gap of -40.7%); 8 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -40.7% trailing gap, -5.3% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -35.4% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
158 MW Hill County plant, owned by BPL Files Solar LLC, COD 2023. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 16.4% vs peer median 23.6% (gap of -29.9%); 30 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -29.9% trailing gap, -9.0% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -20.9% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
173 MW Tom Green County plant, owned by CVS Energy Holdings, LLC, COD 2023. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 19.7% vs peer median 24.2% (gap of -18.8%); 29 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
124 MW Fannin County plant, owned by BT Coniglio Solar LLC, COD 2021. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 19.2% vs peer median 24.3% (gap of -21.3%); 25 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -21.3% trailing gap, -10.0% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -11.3% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
255 MW Pecos County plant, owned by Concho Bluff LLC, COD 2021. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 19.4% vs peer median 25.3% (gap of -22.2%); 25 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months, curtailment-suspect (ERCOT West).
127 MW Navarro County plant, owned by Briar Creek Solar 1, LLC, COD 2021. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 19.5% vs peer median 24.2% (gap of -19.7%); 15 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
275 MW Denton County hybrid PV plant with co-located 125 MW BESS, owned by BT Noble Solar, LLC, COD 2022. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.4% vs peer median 25.5% (gap of -16.3%); 40 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
182 MW Pecos County plant, owned by 174 Power Global Corp., COD 2018. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 20.0% vs peer median 24.3% (gap of -18.7%); 5 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months, curtailment-suspect (ERCOT West).
100 MW Uvalde County plant, owned by Consolidated Edison Development Inc., COD 2015. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.2% vs peer median 25.2% (gap of -15.2%); 2 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
50 MW Pecos County plant, owned by BHE Renewables, LLC, COD 2017. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.4% vs peer median 26.8% (gap of -20.5%); 3 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months, curtailment-suspect (ERCOT West).
59 MW Cooke County plant, owned by Adapture Renewables, Inc., COD 2020. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 22.9% vs peer median 23.7% (gap of -6.5%); 31 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
150 MW Ector County plant, owned by 174 Power Global Corp. / TotalEnergies, COD 2020. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.9% vs peer median 23.5% (gap of -8.4%); 19 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months, curtailment-suspect (ERCOT West).
83 MW Fannin County plant, owned by GSEone, COD 2021. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.5% vs peer median 23.9% (gap of -12.3%); 33 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
135 MW Ellis County plant, owned by Elm Branch Solar 1, LLC, COD 2021. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.1% vs peer median 24.2% (gap of -14.3%); 20 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
250 MW Navarro County plant, owned by Pisgah Ridge Solar, LLC, COD 2022. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 23.2% vs peer median 25.1% (gap of -8.7%); 15 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
240 MW Childress County plant, owned by Childress Solar Park LLC, COD 2020. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 18.9% vs peer median 24.1% (gap of -24.4%); 9 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months. Of the -24.4% trailing gap, -8.7% is explained by hail modeling and vintage drift; -15.7% is unexplained, consistent with module/inverter degradation but not confirmed without site-level diagnostics.
59 MW Van Zandt County plant, owned by ENI New Energy US, Inc, COD 2020. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.8% vs peer median 24.3% (gap of -10.9%); 5 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
198 MW Lamar County plant, owned by Impact Solar 1, LLC, COD 2020. Trailing 12-month capacity factor 21.0% vs peer median 24.1% (gap of -14.5%); 9 hail event(s) ≥1.5" within 50km in last 24 months.
Every formula, source, and selection rule. If you disagree with the screen, you should be able to point at the line you disagree with.
All inputs are public. Generation data is real (EIA Form 923, 2023-2024). Hail data from NOAA SPC reports. Irradiance from Open-Meteo Historical Archive. Owner names from EIA 860 Schedule 4.
Each plant is grouped with TX utility-scale PV peers sharing all of:
Minimum cohort size 6. The peer-median 12-month capacity factor is used as the expected reference.
Capacity factor and gap are computed as:
CF_plant = MWh_actual_12mo / (MW_AC × 8760)
CF_peer_med = median( CF_i ) for i in peer cohort
gap_pct = (CF_plant − CF_peer_med) / CF_peer_med × 100Monthly comparison normalizes each month against the peer cohort's monthly median to control for weather-shape effects.
A plant is flagged on hail if any of the following hold over the trailing 12 months:
Plants with COD in 2016–2018 are flagged for PPA roll-off in the typical 2031–2036 window. This is a structural signal, not asset-specific.
From the population of TX utility-scale PV plants:
Selection is fully reproducible. Code & frozen inputs are published on GitHub.
A single capacity-factor gap number conflates very different underlying causes. We split each plant's trailing-12mo gap into named, rule-based components: what is plausibly attributable to known explanators, and what is left unexplained. The unexplained residual is the closest signal to fixable underperformance an acquirer can extract from public data.
gap_pct_12mo = curtailment + hail + vintage + hybrid + residual curtailment = −7% if curtailment_suspect (ERCOT West, lon < −101.5°) else 0 hail = clamp( −1.0% × events_≥2.0″_24mo −0.3% × events_1.5–2.0″_24mo, [−8%, 0]) vintage = clamp( −0.5% × max(0, current_year − cod_year − 1), [−5%, 0]) hybrid = −4% if project_type = "Hybrid PV+BESS" else 0 residual = gap_pct_12mo − (sum of the above)Coefficient sources:
Bounded total.If the explanators sum to more negative than the actual gap, components are proportionally scaled down so they cannot "over-explain"; residual is then zero, not positive.
Residual flag. A plant fires the RESIDUAL flag when both gap_pct_12mo ≤ −10% AND residual ≤ −10%: meaningful gap that can't be attributed to known explanators. Of the current top 20, ~5 fire this flag.
HYBRID in the Type column) report net generation in EIA Form 923. When the co-located BESS is being charged from on-site solar, net export is reduced, making the plant look underperforming relative to a PV-only peer cohort even when irradiance-to-DC performance is fine. Read those gaps with caution; co-located storage MW is shown in the per-plant detail card.This work uses the terms underperformance signal and screening flag. It does not use the terms “distress score,” “default risk,” or any equivalent. No claim is made that any named plant will fail, default, or be sold.
This page is a screening artifact for acquirer outreach, not investment advice.
Happy to walk through the methodology, share the underlying CSV, and discuss any of the 20 in detail. No pitch, no ask. Just a conversation.